Maybe it's just my low-level american amateur rugby experience, but seeing that crap at the professional level is turning me off of watching that level of rugby. I'm the president and a coach of my club and I'd rather walk away that tolerate more than the retaliatory punch. We'll pull a hothead if we think he's likely to do something reckless and/or intentional.
Holy shit thats pretty terrible. At least he seems genuinely angry (not that that makes it better) and not the cold calculation you see in that Callum Clark offence.
It is, but it's clearly an aggravated offence. As Jam says, the RFU aren't coming down on things like gouging, stamping (shh!) or other skulduggery harshly enough. There are a few prop tricks, like burrowing in, that need to have books thrown at them. Not that the props will read them. Adding referees is not the answer, I don't think, but more oversight and harsher sanctions are. I bet we can all come up with a number of times where players were caught on-camera or by the crowd doing something rather untoward (Rougerie? Mealamu? Burger?) and nothing has happened. I think that such inaction hurts the game more than players throwing their handbags around. Fighting is unpleasant and players should keep their heads, but you both know what rugby's like and what professional sportsmen are like. It's understandable, but not necessarily wanted. I don't personally like it but I don't really see how you can remove it from the game, even at the amateur level (where I would hazard that fighting is probably more common). I think you're absolutely correct to pull any hotheads, but it's not always them that snap. Fighting or ill-discipline generally leads to a club or national authority sanction so they may get small fines. Hazell will get a long ban, probably shortened a bit by previous conduct and any mitigating circumstances they might find.
Whoa now, I think you mean the IRB and associated unions - not just the RFU! We're not the ones who handed out piddly bans to Burger et al :)
True. I was going for RFUs (missed a letter) but that doesn't make sense either given there is an RFU.
So in about 3 hours (honestly this time!) the All Blacks will play the Wallabies. It's not for anything per se, what with the Bledisloe already won, but a test is a test. If the ABs win it'll be 17 test wins in a row (and 100 against Australia) and will set them up nicely to beat Scotland, Italy, Wales and England - if that isn't too hubristic - and surpass the current highest number of consecutive test wins (18 by Lithuania). The Wallabies, despite a decent showing against Argentina, are riddled with injuries and haven't exactly been in the best form. On paper this will be a comfortable or comprehensive All Blacks win, but this sort of perfect storm can lead to overconfidence and wounded Wallabies can be dangerous. It would be an absolutely immense win if they could manage it, but honestly this All Blacks side looks too composed, even on the back foot, for me to think that at all likely.
Well, I have to eat my words, All Blacks very much off their game. We've still managed to claw our way back to 15-15 with help from Aussie errors. 15 minutes to go. Come on Blacks, hammer out a win. EDIT: And Ashley-Cooper is kind enough to drop it close to his posts, Carter kicks it, 18-15. Their attack is thrown away when they drop it forward again. EDIT: Wallabies get a penalty 18-18. 5 minutes to go. EDIT: Wallabies losing it forward every chance they get, still holding on, All Black scrum. Wallabies get it back, their scrum, 2 minutes. EDIT: 82 minutes, All Blacks get a penalty, McCaw opts for a scrum to keep the winning dream alive. EDIT: Oh my god. I just.... man. Carter goes for a drop goal on the All Blacks attack, misses by very little. That would have been utterly beautiful. Ah well.
Wow, they drew with that Australian team and ended the nation's hopes of holding the win-streak record. Commiserations. I hope the Kiwi papers aren't as bad as the Aussie ones. Hey, the AIs got a bit more interesting at least.
Apparently, if I were to strap on the boots today, I would be committing a penalty on just about every tackle by being slow to get away from the tackle/forming ruck. At least according to this video from the USA national referee panel: Because I'm slow.
That kind of video is fascinating to me, because while I watch a fair bit of the game, I've never really read anything about the rules. So I've just picked up the rules by osmosis and the people I watch with. Cool to see what the actual guidelines are for a set of refs. And that roll-away thing doesn't seem to come up much in the Heineken/Rabo competitions here in Europe. Whether thats down to the players or the refs I couldn't tell you though. It has been pretty funny to watch some players seemingly baffled by the new count of 3 rule at the breakdown. Refs shouting "use it!" and just a puzzled look from the scrum half(?) when he gives away a penalty for not listening.
"Laws, not rules" is the annoying saying by some. I talked to a ref friend about this, and apparently in the US, higher level refs 'show off' by calling the roll-away stuff quicker. Personally, I think at least two of those examples were the player making a clear attempt to get away but without interfering with the ball or scrumhalf.
:) Basically there's 4 main things that get reffed at the tackle area: 1) Players not releasing the tackled player - you'll hear commentators talk about "a clear gap" which is when a tackler has to release the player, show the ref that he's released, then (while on his feet) go for the ball. If you latch on during the tackle and don't release, you get pinged. 2) Players not releasing the ball - assuming 1) has been done correctly, the player must play or release the ball immediately. If they don't, and an opposition player is trying to get it, penalty. 3) Players not rolling away - tacklers who fall "on the wrong side" either on the ball or between the ball and the opposition halfback, and don't immediately try to get out of the way. A common tactic and a common source of penalties 4) Players going off their feet at the ruck - while getting rid of opposition players by taking them to ground is fine, you can't just flop over the ball in attack or defence. The emphasis on which one of those 4 is pinged the most changes each season as the refs and the IRB try and tweak things. Edit: Those things should all be checked roughly in order as a ref, along with making sure people enter the from the "gate" and players not in the ruck stay behind the hindmost foot. It's a tough job!
IT'S AUTUMN INTERNATIONAL SEASON! I'll do a proper warm-up post later/tomorrow, but we've got the opening tests coming up and I couldn't be less excited. Saturday, we have: Wales vs Argentina: Welsh players have been failing to ignite so far this season and we've got a couple of key players out (BUT PHILIPS ISN'T STARTING). There's been some talk of shifting Warburton out to 6 and starting the on-form Tipuric but Warburton's made of glass and we've got Shingler (should be starting) for muscle. Argentina were, I feel, over-rated in the RC by the press especially considering the general standard. Who knows? England vs Fiji: not certain how Fiji are looking but they typically fare poorly against England. England have picked a few new faces for various reasons, I seem to remember, so it should be an interesting watch for England fans looking to the future (shush). Italy vs Tonga:Go Tonga! Ireland vs South Africa: the Irish are very game and their clubs have been doing pretty well so far. They're missing a few key players including O'Driscoll (looking old lately), their big flankers O'Brien and Ferris (who have never impressed me), their "World Class" fullback Kearney, and they've still got O'Gara on the bench (I want to see him come on and try and tackle pretty much any South African). South Africa are missing the rampaging BdP and Goosen (playing Lambie at fly-half instead) but have JPP back. I can see the Irish edging it, maybe. France vs Australia: this is either going to be a nail-biter or hilarious. France have a much-changed line-up, with their usual 9 and 10 relegated to the bench. They've put Fofana out on the wing (good move) and are running Fritz/Mermoz in the centres. They too are missing their flankers including one of my favourite players, Dusautoir. Australia have run out of players, although I'm interested to see they're starting Harris ahead of Barnes (and putting AAC, one of their most consistent and underrated players, on the wing). This should be an easy win for France but it's France vs Australia. Anything could happen. Literally anything. Rains of badgers or a tidal wave of honey destroying Paris. Who knows? Scotland vs New Zealand: pray for rain. Scotland have few injuries but I hear there are some fitness concerns for their tight five. Tim Visser should relish his chance particularly as he's got to be one of the first Dutchmen to play the game professionally. NZ haven't announced their team yet. Scotland haven't looked great in recent international history so they'll turn this into a single score win just to rub salt into the wounds of every other NH team. A lot of 7s are missing or very injury-prone these days. Curious.
Yeah, good call. This is what happens when a union fucks the regions in the arse. It's pretty clear the WRU have been plundering for a while now without giving any support. Cuthbert and JD2 will be the next to leave, I reckon, maybe North. I would put money on the Fabulous Baker Boy but he's too loyal (he does give the impression of being whiter than white). Right, as promised. I'll leave England to you. Where: Stade de France, Paris. When: 2100 local time (GMT + 1), 10th November. What: As I mentioned earlier, the Wobblies are out of players. Nathan Sharpe is going to outlast religion at this rate, but at least they've got AAC back and Hooper is looking increasingly like stealing Pocock's shirt from him. Aside from that, there's not much to comment on except this is the team that stopped the All Blacks not long ago. What this means for this game I don't know. I don't expect Australia to go down without a fight, but I don't know how much fight they have left. France have an interesting-looking line-up. Michalak's normally a scrum-half but with the near-universal deficit of quality fly-halves and his generally good play he should relish the chance. They're also running two crash-ball merchants of the hardest calibre in Fofana and Fritz so the Aussies might have their hands full there. McCabe's game but I don't know how much more punishment he can take, and I believe Tapuai is getting his first cap here. The French do have some downsides, though. They're missing Dusautoir and are running two opensides in the hopes of winning the breakdown against what will be a scrappy team. Picamoles should be fun to watch given that. Also interesting to see will be the scrum completions. Australia have made a habit of killing every scrum they take part in, one way or another, and the French pack look moderately gnarly (save Dimitri "Best they can do" Szarzewski). I can't call this one. Okay, I can. France should win this handily. Except it's France vs Australia, so my prediction is Romania by five.
Where: Aviva Stadium, Lansdowne Road When: 1730 GMT, 10th November Why: It's the end of the year, so warriors must be blooded. South Africa are coming in off the back of a very disappointing RC. I mean really disappointing. I was hoping to see them move a bit further away from Saffaball given the talent they have, but they didn't and on top of that they failed to perform. They're also missing a few players. Bismarck du Plessis is out but Adraan Strauss is in. BdP is a much better player and a lethal carrier but Strauss has a phenomenal work-rate for a hooker so that's not so bad. Burger's still out, thank goodness. Goosen is still injured so they're running the very capable Pat Lambie at fly-half (ahead of the uninspiring Jantjies). They're also missing Habana but have the as-good Pietersen back (although why they're running Kirchner given they've got Taute AND Pietersen available). On the flip side, they've got a pack created in what I can only assume was a Veldt breeding program for gorilla wrestlers. Their bench is equally heavy and their back-line aren't going to be running and cutting much (although Lambie and JP are fantastic with ball in hand). I expect them to shatter Ireland up front here, or attempt to, which is still a Saffaball variant. I do hope to see a bit more broken play. Ireland are missing some really key players, on the other hand. No Best is a huge blow, so they've got Adriaan Strauss's+ cousin instead. The muscle in their back three is gone almost completely with the loss of Ferris and O'Brien and I'm not sure if the replacements have the bulk to face down Alberts and Louw, let alone Etzebeth. The aging POC and BOD are also down for the count, leaving a moderate gap in the locks (but one Ireland desperately needed to fill anyway) and a huge defensive gap in the centres. D'Arcy and Earls are going to have serious trouble in defence although they might be okay, ignoring handling errors (shush) on attack. On the plus side Sexton gets to start although he had to promise his first-born. On the minus side, O'Gara and O'Callaghan are on the bench. What does it take to get rid of those men (although they probably needed to take DOC)? Trimble and Bowe have been looking pretty good this season, from what I remember (take notes JPP) so they've got attacking options. Oh, and Kearney's missing. The problem Ireland have here is fronting up. Healy and Ross will be willing and able as ever, but I don't know if the rest of the team can handle the South Africans. Having said all that, the South Africans have been under-performing and Ireland are at home. I think it'll be South Africa, but only by five. +Argentina are the only top-tier team that come to mind where I can't name any specific poaches.
Interim break! USA 40 - 26 Russia The Eagles handily outclass the Russians in Colwyn Bay. I didn't catch it, but it looks like the Eagles had pretty easy going for most of the match. Currently being played is Samoa vs Canada, where I expect Samoa to give the Canadians (and I say this as a holder of a Canadian passport) a rather rough seeing-to. This is part of the IRB Internationals series, all from Colwyn Bay, which are all being streamed on their website. There are a huge number of internationals this weekend, and being a biased sort of chap I'm only covering the 'big-name' ones. Here's where I also bring up the obligatory controversy. There are plausible rumours flying around that certain clubs have been paying players from poorer countries not to make themselves available for international duties. These are particularly being levelled at Fiji and French clubs (only ones with the money, really). Let's hope they're not entirely true.
Where: Stadio Mario Rigamon When: 1500 local (1400 GMT), 10th November. Whither: Both Italian clubs are in the bottom third of the Pro12 table. Admittedly Zebre are rather new, but that's not a good start. The Italian team looks fairly similar to the way it always does, some fairly dogged defenders and a great heart, but not much else save the wicked genius of Sergio Parisse (who will, as always, try to carry his team alone). I see that they're running Lo Cicero and Cittadini instead of their big-haired teddy bear, Castrogiovanni, but I'm not certain why. Tonga, on the other hand, have some battering-ram attack. Ma'afu and Vainikolo will want to run at that Italian defence and Taumalolo proved himself in the SXV this year as a key player in the Chief's win. He's also really fast for a prop. I don't expect any sparkling rugby from either team, who will instead likely play a very direct (and in the case of Tonga, bone-shattering) game. I think that the Italians probably have the better team on paper and are playing at home, but I expect this to be a close fight. Italy by three.
Where: Somewhere wet (Murrayfield) When: it'll be dark (1430 GMT, 11th November) Wilt: Scotland haven't beaten New Zealand. Not in over a hundred years. They've got a couple of draws to their name but no wins. They've got what I would call their first team pretty much fully available, and the Warriors have been doing well for themselves so far. Tim Visser, the giant Dutch winger, has been scoring at-will all season. The back three are a decent unit although they lack any kind of killer touch (I'm not certain they'll bring Denton on). The front three are a little weak with Ford yet to impress me by putting in a really hard shift. Scotland did win all their games this tour, even beating Australia which is something that Wales failed to do (START HOOK OR BIGGAR). They also beat South Africa last AIs and home games are a huge lift for the Scots. I think they'll be ready for it, and they'll want it, but I wonder if it'll be a case of the spirit being willing but the flesh weak. New Zealand have made a ton of changes. Tamati Ellison gets a start, Ben Smith is starting, Weepu is playing (!?) and Adam Thomson is bedding down at 6. Other than that they've got a solid core to build around. Savea and Carter in particular will enjoy running at this Scottish line, and Vito might feel he has something to prove given Read's recent performances.They haven't exactly been playing well of late, but sadly nor has any other team. I really hope next year starts to look a bit better. At the moment, I see New Zealand by 14+. Sadly.
Where: Millenium Stadium When: 1430, 10th November. The hell: Wales have basically this set of internationals to prove that they're actually worth something. The legendary Barry John doesn't think so, although that might have been a bit of fate management on his part. Looking at this team, though, I think he's got a point. Wales used to be a fly-half and scrum-half factory. Now we've got nothing, unless Priestland just went through a bad patch. Halfpenny's a hugely underrated player and will not let himself down. We're starting Scott Williams ahead of the more lively, footballer-type Beck. I think Roberts sums up the state of the back-line. Monstrous, heart-in-hand defence but staid and regressive attacking from a back-line that should be ripping other defences open for fun with their talent (North needs to get the ball or run more dummy lines in attack, for example). The pack's missing two absolutely key players in Dan Lydiate (who reminds me of Dusautoir in the way he plays) and Adam Jones, who are both workhorses for the team. Warburton may not last the tests out, not because he's not tough (he's pretty fierce as certain tacklees will tell you) but because he's just not built for the sort of beating that opensides take in the modern game (which is why they're all injured). Tipuric's been on better form but he's completely different and without Warburton our breakdown work suffers. Lots of injuries in the pack already, and we could do without any more. Although, hey, Philips isn't starting. Argentina come in with a very similar team to the one that scrapped and fought through the RC quite recently. I think the generally low standard flattered the Argentines a little, given that they're running a fairly old team. They'll still put in big shifts. I expect Leguizamon and Cabello to make a nuisance of themselves every breakdown, NH refs permitting, and Lobbe to play as heartily as he ever does. They'll play with guts and they'll look to slow the ball down a lot. Argentina really suffer playing at a high pace, the sort Wales enjoy, and prefer a slow grind, the sort that does well against Wales. That means they'll be keen to control this match carefully to stop things getting out of hand. The issue is that they've got massive fitness issues. They didn't play at pace for an entire game in the RC and tend to peter out in the last ten-twenty. I don't know if they'll be able to keep up if the Welsh put their foot down. Obviously I have a bit of a bias here. I think Wales are a good match-up for Argentina but that Argentina haven't quite proved they can step up for big games yet. Argentina are also missing their big, long-term prop Rodrigo Roncero and I expect them to be hurting as a result. I don't predict a sparkling game, but I do think Wales by five scored in the last ten. There we have it folks. Feel free to take me to task over these. I was expecting Jam to do one for England but he might not have the time.
I am home early! So I will do one shortly. (Smart money is on Lydiate being the next to move, but I'm not sure about that one yet)
Where: Twickenham Stadium When: 14:30, Saturday 10th November England treat themselves to what should be a fairly straightforward warmup. It's something about England teams - historically even when we've been really poor, we've rarely struggled to beat "minnows" (we've never lost to Italy, for example) that aren't historical opponents. It's an odd record and one I'm fairly thankful for, given the trials and tribulations of the last decade. It's not a full strength Fiji side and there's a few interesting positional choices from the available players, too. Gloucester's Akapusi Qera - a real powerhouse of an openside flanker - starts at No.8 which may just suit him down to the ground. There's no doubt he's at his most impressive with ball in hand and he should get plenty of opportunity with his shift to the back of the scrum, although scrums should be slightly thinner on the ground now that England have dropped the flipper-handed Botha from the pack. The Fijian midfield will be familiar to most English fans as both Sireli Naqelevuki and Niki Goneva turn out for English club sides - Exeter and Leicester Tigers respectively. They're big boys, and Naqelevuki in particular will present a physical threat that even the South Africans couldn't match. He had an odd career in Super14 where he was mostly employed as a genuinely awful winger, but he's found his place at 12 (where Fiji were more comfortable playing him anyway) for club and country. Goneva is used on the wing at Tigers and doesn't strike me as a natural 13. It'll be interesting to see how he gets on, particularly in defence where he's seemed a little hesitant at times this season. England's selection has been forced a little by injury. In the front row, our options are limited thanks to injuries to Alex Corbisiero, Dylan Hartley, and Joe Gray, leaving us with the raw Tom Youngs at hooker and the ever-improving Joe Marler at loosehead. Youngs is a genuine worry, with a tendency to fall apart completely at the lineout, and frankly has not earned the right to be playing for England just yet, let alone starting. With David Paice available, Youngs should be on the bench. Sadly his utter capitulation against Quins and Gloucester hasn't been enough to dissuade the England management. Grumble Leicester bias grumble. He's also a bit shoddy in defence, but no-one talks about that. As mentioned above, the South African Mauritz Botha has been dropped, which means Wasps' young lock/flanker Joe Launchbury is on the bench. He's a real talent, a stand-out in the U20s and a real workhorse with some genuine gas to boot. Danny Care's superb form this season means he gets the 9 shirt despite a late media blitz for Ben Youngs (on the back of 1.5 good games). The wings are new - Monye and Sharples have bags of gas and not that much brains, but both are excellent in the air (watch for Monye nicking restart after restart) - and the somewhat uncreative midfield partnership means that Alex Goode gets the nod over the best fullback in the country, because he can play 12. Yes, that's how we pick our teams in this country. Add in a fat Kiwi at 8 (Morgan's poor form leaving them no choice), Robshaw continuing as captain and openside, and that's pretty much it. England have promised to provide more attacking threat this season, but I don't see it from that team. England by 14, but I don't expect fireworks.
I considered him, but I thought injury issues would make him less attractive. I would love to see what him and Warburton could do in more expensive teams (although as mentioned I don't think Warburton will go). England don't look hugely exciting at the moment but there is a huge injury problem for nearly every team and a lot of otherwise-good players (for all teams) have been under performing in their leagues from what I gather. I don't think Fiji will trouble them much but they've got Australia next who, barring a total pack capitulation (always a possibility for Aus), could require some attacking nous to get around.
Going back to your earlier point about Warburton, I don't think he'd be starting if he wasn't captain. I'm also a little surprised by the Turnbull pick - I think both flankers on the bench are better than him. Hmm. The only reassuring thing about England's stodginess at the moment is the admission from the coaching staff (and some of the players) that they need to improve and defence was the initial focus for the squad under Lancaster. It's a far cry from the days of Johnno clinging to Borthwick's captaincy and the amazing amount of self delusion that followed every match.
Completely agree, I'm not sure why he's starting. I don't disagree about Warburton either but the Blues haven't been great the last season or two. His international form tends to be pretty good regardless of his club form, and I think he's genuinely talented enough that he could do well in a different club. Interesting note: his club captain might turn up in the Six Nations squad as a utility forward. Pretorius qualifies on residency grounds in December and I hear they've been looking at him for a while. I wouldn't complain at all if they started Tipuric and gave someone else the captaincy. It might actually be a worthwhile experiment and I suspect Gatland might have tried it. God help us when Gatland and Edwards leave. England will be fine, I'm sure. Of the European nations, Ireland and Scotland seem to be the problem children. Ireland don't seem to have spent any time developing or blooding new players at all, and Scotland's problems are many.
And Fox Soccer Plus, which I pay extra for because it has some rugby, doesn't have any of these games. Feh!
There's a few decent sites to get recordings of the games a day or two later. Let me know if you're interested.
Sorry for not posting more, I've been bogged down with exams and haven't been keeping up with tests (the rugby sort). Last one tomorrow, though. I've appreciated the write-ups, so cheers for that. Australia are in dire straights, if they lose to England and France win they'll drop to 5th in the world rankings. If England win they'll certainly drop below them in the rankings, as if getting beaten by England wasn't a terrible enough fate. That said their supporters want Robbie Deans gone so much that some of them half want a failure bad enough to make it happen. All that said wounded Wallabies can be a real threat. I wouldn't be surprised if they get all gutsy and hammer out a win. Other than that... you know the old saying: When in Rome give the Italians a hiding.
I can't entirely blame Deans, though. He's out of players and I reckon he's got player-management issues. There are a fair few egos in that Aussie team, and some of them (TPN...) like to talk. Anyways, controversy time. Late, off-ball tip tackle costs Simmons 8 weeks. Punch then stepping on the head of a player gets Thomson one week. Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu, excess sarcasm in under 130 characters. Several weeks. Simmons got roughly the right length of time. It was a pretty nasty hit. Thomson, well, one the one hand, it wasn't much. On the other, you don't touch the head, especially not with your feet. The IRB: Promoting Your Game With Intelligence and Passion. I wonder if the rest of the tests will be ill-tempered. 'boks are as angry as ever but they've got a pack I wouldn't put money against in any fight, there was something ill-tempered about the All Blacks (Weepu had a go at someone at one point) and Australia are just going to lose it. (Just had a thought; Jam, are you going to be supporting Scotland now?). Tomorrow's game below, I'll put up the rest tomorrow night unless Jam wants to take any. Where: Wetturf Stadium, Cardiff When: 1930 GMT, Friday 15th. After the happenings about which we will not speak last week (without wishing to sound patronising, congrats to Argentina. You played exactly the game you needed to and the better team won.) Wales are staring down the barrel. They've got to get some decent wins here if they want a decent spot in the World Cup pools. If anyone makes it that far, of course. To that end, they've made a whole load of changes from the line-up that started last week. Paul James is propping. Richard Hibbard has replaced the injured Rees. We've lost our key lock, Alun Wyn-Jones for Bradley Davies, who's got more grunt and better carrying but less brains and experience. Out goes the injured Turnbull and instead we get Ryan Jones, who's come into something of a purple patch of late. Tipuric comes into to replace whoever was there last week- he's good at turning the ball and a solid tackler but the big thing about Tipuric is his speed, natural skill and his link play. Dan Biggar, something of a pariah for his Henson-esque ego (but absolutely vital for his club), comes in at lock to hopefully make Priestland buck up, and Ashley Beck, a very keen and mildly creative player comes in to cover for the Scott Williams who was otherwise absent last game. I'm surprised they're running him at 13; I guess they're hoping Roberts doesn't take one on the chin again (and God knows that's easy for him). Philips also starts because we've got nowt else. On the note of scrum-halfs, we may well get a masterclass in the position tomorrow. Kahn Fotuali'i was some people's pick of the position in the World Cup and he's been notably great for the Ospreys. I understand he was eligible to play for the All Blacks, and everything I've heard and seen indicates they were stupid to give him up. Samoa are missing a player due to a high tackle in the previous match (what else?), so the very handy Autogavia is covering. Fa'asavalu is starting this match; he plays for Jam's team so he can tell you more about him (he's been good). Cencus Johnston comes in to do the usual work in the scrum. Paul Williams comes back in to cover for an injury. George Pisi is playing. How will this work? Well, Samoa are pushing for recognition as a Tier One nation, and they'll have watched that Wales game last week and be really, really game. They'll hit hard, tackle in a borderline legal fashion and, quite likely, run tactics that most people wouldn't expect from an Islands nation. I hear they've had some problems with ambitious tactical kicking lately, and getting charged down (JJD, who is out, would love that). On the other hand, they've held Wales off before at the Millenium and it's possible they can do it again. Wales, on the other hand, have a load of players starting with something to prove (Beck, Biggar, Hibbard, Tipuric, Philips) for one reason or another. Whether they actually do is another matter. Should they actually get a game of moderate intelligence and fluidity together they should win narrowly; if they don't and it turns into a dogfight, I would actually put my money on Samoa. They're that sort of team and they're very hungry. Still, keep an eye on Fotuali'i. And the tackles. Someone will get whiplash. Prediction: too worried to call it.
I am quite angry right now. Between the abject misery of our breakdown work, Rhys Priestland (Biggar will be crocked I think, but he was miles better), whatever happened to our scrum, our lack of spirit, our lack of aggression and our mental game I'm surprised we won anything at all in recent history. What the fuck is going on? We've got enough proven talent in Wales that we could be taking on the Southern Hemisphere teams and winning, but we're not. I'm just fucking livid right now. On the bright side, well done Samoa! Fully deserved, they looked a tier above Wales tonight. Fully dominant. I'm still concerned about how they're refereed and the legality of their hits but they're earning their place. Full credit for that win and I hope to see them turn other Tier One nations. I don't mean that out of spite, I've long wanted to see a PI nation really become a force. When I've calmed down I'll do the rest. I assume Jam will do England again. Edit: I feel absolutely terrible for Ryan Jones and Leigh Halfpenny. Halfpenny deserves to be in a much, much better team. Much better. Second edit: I've thought for a little while now that Howley has been a terrible attack coach and it's showed on the pitch. I now think he might be the reason many of the players don't look like they want to be playing rugby. He was a fantastic scrum-half but it doesn't always convert.
The Howleycaust gathers pace. Finally watched Wales/Argentina the other day and it struck me how much creative and confident with ball in hand Argentina were, which says all you need to know about the current state of Welsh rugby. If Tusi Pisi had been fit during the World Cup, Lavea wouldn't have been able to self-destruct and I think Wales would've lost then; today Wales were second best everywhere. From a Quins point of view it was nice to see big games from Mo the wrecking ball at 7 and JJ (the reserve tighthead who munched Gethin a couple of times). Wales aside from Halfpenny and Biggar looked clueless, like strangers wearing fake players masks.
Where: Murrayfield When: 1430 GMT, Sat 17th of November. What: Scotland haven't made many changes from last week. Rennie's gone so Kelly Brown gets to start, and he can be handy at times. Matt Scott starts at inside centre, and Euan Murray is playing which will give the scrum a bit more surety. South Africa are going with De Jonge this week instead of Taute but are otherwise unchanged looks like Mtawarira needs more time to recover. It's going to be a pretty similar affair to last week, I think, except the Scots might put up a bit more resistance in the midfield. The South Africans are going to absolutely mash away at their line looking to break it, with Ruan Pienaar doing the usual scrum-1/2 little General thing he did so well last week. I was mightily impressed with Scotland last week- they got shellacked but that didn't dampen their will at any point. Actually, the Kiwis didn't seem to like it when the Scottish fronted up. I haven't seen their defence that soft in a while- McCaw leaking a try to a prop? Say it ain't so! On the other hand, this isn't going to be the same game. I think Scotland are going to absolutely take it to the South Africans and try to stay on the attack where, to be honest, it hurts a bit less. I'm going to put my neck on the line here and say Scotland by three.
What to do about it, though? Biggar is a big blow as he's clearly better than Priestland. Gethin's lack of game time, particularly in the scrum, is showing. I didn't actually see the Wales/Samoa game at the RWC, I don't think, so I can't comment on that. Since the end of the Six Nations, Wales have been in complete meltdown.
Where: Rome When: 1400 GMT, Sat 17th of November. God I hope this isn't the telephone number everyone's predicting. Few changes for both sides. The All Blacks are basically running their development team (picked on SXV form, from the looks of things), with a few old heads to keep the team together. Conrad Smith returns, as does Read. Italy have made a lot of changes since last week. Zanni and Castrogiovanni are in to lend a bit more experience, Botes and Burton go out in favour of some guys with actual Italian names (Orquera has been okay the few times I've seen him, Gori is a fairly new face to the Italian team as he's only been around a couple of years). I'm not sure it's going to help them, though. They're weaker than Scotland in defence and despite having some decent attackers, never really seem like stringing a good set of moves together. That's not to say that they won't step up against New Zealand, but that the odds are against them. I want to see an upset, but it's highly unlikely.
Where: Lille When: 2000 GMT, Saturday 17th of November. Well, this one should be fun. Very fun indeed. Both sides are coming in off the back of big wins (admittedly against hugely misfiring opponents, not to detract from their quality). Both really want to ram home a point with this win (France that they're in the ascendancy, Argentina that the tour was a blip). Both have a tricksy habit of turning the French game inside out, and both can play great rugby. So, France aren't doing a great deal. They've got Dulin coming in at fullback and that's it, really. Argentina have shuffled their back row around a bit, are running Bosch instead of Contepomi (a loss but manageable), Agulla gets the nod ahead of Camacho and it looks like Hernandez has been dropped in favour of the more-usual fullback, Amorosino. I can't say a lot about what's going to happen here, to be honest. I'm really looking forward to it. Both Picamoles and Fernandez Lobbe will be coming at the other team like demons (Lobbe has the edge in overall play). It looks like the Argentines want to build on the more flowing game that we saw snippets of against Wales. On the other hand, France have so much fire-power coming in from every area on the pitch, assuming Michalak doesn't QC himself, that it's ridiculous. Nyanga in particular is ensuring they don't miss Dusautoir (although two Opensides against Argentina? Touch and go?). I don't want to take away from Argentina here but I think France have the edge. France by five. I'm tired and frustrated so I'm sorry about the lack of analysis this week. Edit: just noticed your comments about the Quins players, Jam. Your seven made an absolute nuisance of himself.
Don't have time to do an England preview btw - I'm off down to Devon to visit some friends so I've got my work cut out for me just getting to watch it!
