Election 2012: Post-Game Analysis Thread

Reldan · Nov 30, 2012

jeffd said: ↑

That's actually a really good point Reldan, and it makes me wonder... Fun semi/joking musings ahead!

Say you're Mitt Romney and his ten best pals. You'd kind of like to be President, but most of all you want to maximize your own welfare, which welfare is defined by the size of your bank account. Here you've got this massive campaign apparatus that is going to try to make you President. If you're made President you may or may not get to do all sorts of stuff in terms of taxation that might affect you and your ten best pals' bank accounts. On the other hand, this campaign apparatus has a billion dollars (give or take a few million) that you can just filter directly into your bank accounts.

How much do you have to change public policy to get an effect equivalent to what you can just milk out of the campaign, in dollar terms? I bet it's a lot, and as a result the rational thing for a maximally Randian Presidential ticket like Romney Ryan is to say screw actually winning and just try to fundraise as much money as possible and filter it through the apparatus in such a way as to make sure your ten best friends get paid.

It's amusing that the relentless focus on maximizing individual welfare that some strains of conservatives espouse could conceivably make it so they cannot get themselves elected!

Well, if you've got yours and don't see actually being president as a necessity, running the campaign in such a way effectively makes it a Xanatos gambit.

It's certainly a different situation when a rich politician spends deep out of his own pockets. I'm not entirely sure, but my understanding is that Romney could have done that but didn't, instead spending/funneling other people's money.

bloo · Nov 30, 2012

And if you were really clever about it, you'd work that plan over a long period of time and change campaign and political action committee rules so that -- hey, wait a minute!

Jason McCullough · Nov 30, 2012

Enjoy.

Fortunately, survey data exists to examine Luntz’ claim. The results not only reveal a consistently large partisan gap about how to manage illegal immigration, but also a solid Republican preference for deportation. To start, a CNN/ORC poll conducted July 16-21, 2010 asked, “What should be the main focus of the U.S. government in dealing with the issue of illegal immigration—developing a plan that would allow illegal immigrants who have jobs to become legal U.S. residents, or developing a plan for stopping the flow of illegal immigrants into the U.S. and for deporting those already here?” Although the question wording fails to isolate deportation as a single option, answers nevertheless reveal fundamentally different priorities among partisans. Three-quarters of Republicans (73%) answered that deportation and stopping the flow should be our priority. Meanwhile, just 39% of Democrats expressed that sentiment.

A TNS Opinion poll for Transatlantic Trends in 2011 asked a similar question. Although it didn’t use the word “deportation,” it isolated the effective equivalent of “requiring illegal immigrants to be returned to their home country.” Similarly, 66% of Republicans, but just 34% of Democrats, said illegal immigrants must be returned home. Furthermore, another question finds that 7 in 10 Republicans don’t believe citizenship should be granted to children of illegal immigrants who are born here (just 36% of Democrats agreed). In light of these data, Governor Romney’s attacks on Gov. Rick Perry as being soft on immigration during the GOP primary make more sense.

To further establish the breadth of the partisan divide, the CNN/ORC survey reveals that 75% of Republicans and just 30% of Democrats favor the immigration law passed in Arizona that was widely condemned by Hispanic interest groups. Likewise, a majority of Republicans support building a 700-mile fence along the border with Mexico (58%), while a majority of Democrats opposes that plan (61%). Finally, the intensity of attitudes also varies. When asked how the number of illegal immigrants made respondents feel, twice as many Republicans as Democrats reported feeling “angry” (32% versus 16%).

Republicans, mostly the party of deportation.

Brandon Clements · Nov 30, 2012

Lizard_King said: ↑

He's not stupid, he's shifting to a stab in the back. You know the drill.

Eh, someone's been watching The Wire and applying it's lessons in real life

Adree · Dec 2, 2012

Reldan said: ↑

Hey, if that's what it takes to get Chambliss out... Where do I sign up? Blood is the preferred ink for these sorts of deals, right?

You must not have had the displeasure to listen to that idiot on the radio. He a sucker of satan's cock of the Hannity variety.

Jason McCullough · Dec 11, 2012

If you run the regressions the vote margin Obama got from the auto bailout was only 0.3% or something.

The gap between pre-election "enthusiasm" voter screens and final turnout was huge.

Lum · Dec 11, 2012

As a bonus, the Randian focus on economic short-term gain works well with this, since the concept of long-term growth through infrastructure development is apparently inconceivable to Randian theorists. A four year term takes too long, let's see some return on investment THIS MONTH!

Lum · Dec 11, 2012

This is a funny joke of course (the ultimate pump and dump!) but I don't actually believe it. "Never ascribe to malice what can be explained by stupidity". Today's business class is effectively politically illiterate. Romney's base of donators actually apparently really do believe Obama is a real honest-to-god socialist, which is frankly hilarious if, you know, you're familiar with any politics outside the US whatsoever.

eotinb · Dec 12, 2012

Lum said: ↑

This is a funny joke of course (the ultimate pump and dump!) but I don't actually believe it. "Never ascribe to malice what can be explained by stupidity". Today's business class is effectively politically illiterate. Romney's base of donators actually apparently really do believe Obama is a real honest-to-god socialist, which is frankly hilarious if, you know, you're familiar with any politics outside the US whatsoever.

Or history. Or dictionaries.

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Election 2012: Post-Game Analysis Thread

Reldan Keeper of the Elemental Materials

bloo Armchair Designer

Jason McCullough Keeper of the Elemental Materials

Brandon Clements This Is SEWIOUS

Adree Sangry Malcontent

Jason McCullough Keeper of the Elemental Materials

Lum Fatbird

Lum Fatbird

eotinb Oh, Come On

Log in or Sign up

Election 2012: Post-Game Analysis Thread

Reldan Keeper of the Elemental Materials

bloo Armchair Designer

Jason McCullough Keeper of the Elemental Materials

Brandon Clements This Is SEWIOUS

Adree Sangry Malcontent

Jason McCullough Keeper of the Elemental Materials

Lum Fatbird

Lum Fatbird

eotinb Oh, Come On

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