Let's Survive Zafehouse: Diaries!

((I can vouch for the cure though. It seems to have made Javert and any character played by Philip Quast by extension immune. Pearse got BITTEN by the zombie girl and he never developed any infection even though he had an injury afterwards. I suppose Pearse being Pearse it's possibly the zombie virus was scared of him.))

Proceeding with the plan, I let Eboby /Ted and Randomletters /Tappei barricade slowly and quietly (let me know if you want to switch to quickly and loudly), and send JohnStargazer /Mikolaj, Haniel /Erika, and Sarasha /Marko to assault once and breach the church.



I bet Erika is pretending to care just so she has an excuse to tear into him with her scythe.

Well, I think my vote is obvious.

As is my suggestion we move breaching the university up on our timetable.

Can those of us not involved vote? If so, I vote chop the limb off. If not, I watch this suffering with laughter and popcorn.

Wait, if his right leg is chopped off, does the game acknowledge that he's going to be hopping round on one leg for the rest of the game?

Sorry, for dilemmas I'll be proceeding based on a simple majority from the players. :>

Just to confirm, this is a vote for let him live, all right? I was only going to count bolded votes but since you don't seem inclined to vote, let alone bold it, I'll be nice and do it for you. Like this post if you agree so you don't need to do a contentless post which you hate.

Mikolaj's infected?

Well, I can't say that I understand why anyone needs real legs when robotic ones work just as well, and Mikolaj is a valuable member of the team... If it will stop the infection, I think Erika should amputate his leg.

A machete? Found in the midst of a zombie apocalypse?

This may not bode well...

Well Mikolaj, all that standing and watching (not related to some blocky green dude) was going to come back to haunt you one day, wasn't it?

Although my piece self sees amputation as an option, and while I do love tearing flesh and guts, really Gurski is already a second-rate detective. If he loses a leg, who knows how many ranks he'll go down? I say we let him live. Either we find the cure, or he'll make a nice meat shield. There is also the slim possibility that he'll turn, but again, this is Gurski we're talking about. I doubt zombie Gurski is any more fearsome than human Gurski now.

Agreed. Let's immediately switch to assault-breach-searching the university, and not stopping the search until we find the cure.
Though it's not like I like you...
Baka!

On the contrary, zombie Gurski will probably outperform human Gurski.

Now, I realize I cannot vote, but I implore some of you to reconsider. In these trying times, we are either living or dead. Yet, a state of living can be worse than death. Leaving Gurski alive does not extend to him a kind hand of mercy, but a trembling hand of cowardice. You thrust him into the fate of a dead man walking. You let him fall into delirium and turmoil into mindless savagery. By your inaction, you besmirch his memory.

Too few living remain to fall prey now to selfishness. If you have not the heart to give this man a clean exit from the world, then give him a chance to live unfeterred. Give him his due chance to survive. A limb is only a limb.

Or toss aside a most troubled man to assuage your petty fears.

I'll start taking actions after this dilemma is resolved, but you might want to specify how many assaults you want to do on the university now. I'll give you a chance to change your mind later though, don't worry.

True. That's not a very high threshold to pass, though.

Well, except for the fact that we're reasonably close to a location that's somewhat likely to have a cure. It's not like Gurski's in a Logic Error or anything. And if the cure happens to not be there, well, we could probably send him on a fun suicide mission and let him die like a normal player before he turns.

Let's play a game, shall we? First, we'll assign values to Gurski depending on his state after this dilemma. A normal Gurski has a power level of 1. A de-legged Gurski has a power level of, I'm estimating .5, since this is a leg we're talking about - he'll be totally useless for combat, I'm guessing. A dead or a turned Gurski is worth 0, nothing.

Let's assign the probability value X for the probability that an infected and alive Gurski will turn.

So now, let's look at our options.

Killing Mikolaj guarantees an outcome of zero, unless it's possible for him to escape. He'd be an enemy of some form thence, so the expected value of this choice is still 0.

Amputating his leg guarantees an outcome of .5, unless we accidentally kill him or something worse happens. The expected value of this choice is at most .5.

Let n be the number of turns it will take for Gurski to turn.
n_______probability
1_______ X
2_______(1-X)*X
3_______(1-X)^2*X
4_______(1-X)^3*X

And so on.

The expected value function is calculated by summing each probability multiplied by the value it is assigned. In this scenario, Gurski is either alive by the end of it (1), or dead or turned (0).

Let's say reaching the cure takes somewhere between three and nine turns.

Best case scenario, we do this in three turns (assault, breach, search). Thus the expected value is going to be 1 - X - (1-X)*X - (1-X)^2*X (which also just equals (1-X)^3, or the probability of surviving three turns). This is justified because we're only summing the probabilities which are assigned the value of one. This is in effect the same as subtracting the values assigned 0 from 1. Solving by setting this to be greater than or equal to .5, If the chance of turning is less than 20.6%, then probabilistically this is the best option.

Worst case scenario, we do this in nine turns (multiple assaults, multiple turns breaching, multiple searches). The expected value becomes then becomes 1 - X - (1-X)*X - (1-X)^2*X - (1-X)^3*X - (1-X)^4*X - (1-X)^5*X - (1-X)^6*X - (1-X)^7*X - (1-X)^8*X - (1-X)^9*X, or (1-X)^10. Using this equation, If the chance of turning is less than 7.41%, then probabilistically, this is the best option.

In an average case, let's say we reach the cure in six turns, using a similar equation (.5 >= (1-X)^6), then if the chance of turning is less than 10.9%, then probabilistically, this is the best option.

In this numbers game, I think it's pretty reasonable to imagine that the probability of turning is less than 10% per turn. There is much subjectivity in the model, of course. I just picked a random number to represent a crippled Gurski. But I imagine that this game is cruel, and very likely a crippled Gurski will be worth less, possibly much less than even half a normal Gurski, and due to the exponential nature of these equations, if this is true, the maximal threshold probabilities (i.e. those percents I put up there) will go up significantly. Thus, if this is the case, it is better to let Gurski live always in this dilemma.

What do you think, everyone?

Regardless, we can't do this. I didn't bring any plastic bags this time, so I'll get my clothes dirty. <3

Let's start with one assault, see how many zombies are still visible, and decide from there whether to continue to begin breaching.

Shit, those are our choices? If you two think something at the university may help, then let's patch Mikolaj up and head there.

DING DING DING

The majority has spoken! We will be letting Mikolaj live.

No matter how much people seem to think it is, "distant cousins who moved away" is NOT an automatic get-out-of-relationship-hell-free card.

Oh, she said a lot more than just that, game. Also, Marko! So heartless! I wonder what Alana would think if she could see you now!



It's fine though, Mikolaj's on good terms with everybody so you just dropped down to yellow with Marko.



Tappei's relationships are not that horrible, despite the rumour backfiring earlier.



I assaulted the university once as directed. It went all right.



Back at the bar, Ted and Tappei have been making slow but steady progress on the barricades.



And here's what Erika found at the church. No clues though, sadly.

((Honestly, she would've supported killing the apparently irreversibly infected guy.))

Like wife, like husband.

Also, in case it wasn't clear from the end of the update, players should let me know if you want to assault the university again (if you don't specify how many times I'll just do it once) before breaching it, or if you'd like to breach directly, or if you'd like to do something else.

((Would you believe that he's actually a pacifist in canon? Anyway, I'm thinking that we should go ahead and breach the university, but I'm open to being talked out of it if the rest of you disagree.))

9/13 Zombies eliminated in the first run, more inside.

Part of me wants to run another assault to see if we can do a bit more damage, given that we're all tired and two of us are hurt, but I strongly suspect it would be a waste of time and ammo.

So, for now, I'll let my teammates decide. Whatever they agree on, I'll go along with.

I'll go along with our teammates as well. Unless they're assaulting.

Just to clarify, that means you'll leave your barricading position to rejoin the group whenever they breach the university, right? And you have no opinion on whether they should assault the university again.

So Alana would be happy that he's finally toughening up a little? Nice. xD

Yes. And I think we should at least assault it one more time and see how many zombies are left by then. That would make breaching a lot safer.

((So... In case of Zombie Apocolypse, fine Phillip Quast and use him as a human sheild? I'm mostly ok with this plan.))

Ooooo!

Someone's going to die!

I got to say this pleases me, but could you have maybe given him a little hope? After all he might have lived through a leg amputation only to get mulched by zombies trying to walk somewhere!

The despair caused by that would have been so much more delicious. Still, I guess knowing you're going to die is despair inducing enough, but....

Oh yeah. DESTROY THE CHURCH.

((You guys are so damned lucky the uni is even there. Every time I get an infected survivor, all I can bloody breach is a primary school. Amusingly my university almost 100% would NOT have a cure because all Medicine's practical work is outsourced to the nearest hospital. Imagine that.

I did know about the rumour backfire, but I don't think I was awake at the time, or possibly I just didn't feel like the newbies needed to get everything handed on a silver plate. Brain not work well when sleep weird.))

BURN IT! BURN IT GOOD!



YOU THINK UNDEADING WILL STOP THE FIRES OF OUR WRATH?! NON, MONSIEUR! WE ROASTED YOUR CHURCH AND YOUR UNDEAD BODIES ANYWAY!

Also I am curious how is it possible for zombies to become even MORE zombiefied, but I guess I'll leave that mystery up to our eminent, overqualified scientists to figure that out.

Oh, and I guess this happened too.



YAAAAAAAAY



I believe that the next order of business is sending the five original survivors to start another town? Let me know if you want to do something else and how to deal with the issue of the other non-original-flavour survivors. I want to do an impossible, small town, but I'll bow to the whims of the people as usual. Also vote on a name. Though I'm not sure what we're hoping to accomplish with this, since we've won the game like three times already. It was on kind-of-tough ahahaha who am I kidding piss easy mode, but still.

I'm thinking we should assault once more and see the result. Although I am disappointed in the result of the rumor, we are all in the green-yellow spectrum, so the ultimate result is good and can hopefully only get better. I would like to see more verdant things than decaying humans, once in a while...

Battler, I didn't know you had become such a sadist! The last time I saw you, you seemed pretty firmly M. And you're probably right, it is more fun to watch a person get crippled and become totally useless! Let's just have our entire team meander around cluelessly as if we were all blind like Jessica in EP3!

In fact, since you like entertainment so much, why don't I start by cutting off your leg and watch the life in your eyes dim away as you hop around trying to contain the blood loss! Hilarious, right?!

Meh. False dichotomies aren't really that despairing.

What, did you get tired of molesting those 'ass-nee-chans' you love so much?

Also, I heard that through Tappei's work as a Carpenter, he was interviewed on television for offering his services free of charge to uneducated poor people.

((Javert just does what his Road Kill group want him to. He got to burn down the Chosen One Church, he'll be humming Stars for weeks in a rush of joy and obliviousness. I refer once again to the paragraph I quoted earlier. There might even be smiling!))

Confirming actions.

Sarasha /Marko is voting to breach the university immediately.
Randomletters /Tappei and Haniel /Erika want to assault the university one more time and then breach it.
JohnStargazer has no opinion on the subject for once.
Eboby/Ted has no opinion either.

As of right now, the plan is to assault the university one more time and then breach it, but if Eboby /Ted votes to breach the university immediately, it'll fall on JohnStargazer to break the tie.

Randomletters/Tappei and Eboby/Ted also want to stop barricading and join the main group when they breach the university.

We're also spreading this rumour if nobody objects.

I read this topic after a long time and see all the Umineko references? I love you guys.